Asteroid 2025 TF Flies Within 428 km of Antarctica — One of Closest Recorded Encounters

Early on October 1, 2025 (00:47:26 UTC ± 18 s), a small near-Earth asteroid designated 2025 TF passed exceptionally close to Earth—skimming above Antarctica at an altitude of just 428 ± 7 km, a distance comparable to that of the International Space Station’s orbit.

The asteroid is estimated to be between 1 and 3 metres in diameter, making it a relatively small object in cosmic terms. Its flyby ranks among the closest non-impacting asteroid approaches ever recorded, second only to 2020 VT4, which passed at ~370 km in November 2020.

What makes the event even more remarkable is that 2025 TF was only discovered hours after its closest approach. The Catalina Sky Survey in Arizona first identified it on October 1 at 06:36 UTC, nearly six hours post-flyby. Follow-up observations by ESA’s Planetary Defence Office, using the Las Cumbres Observatory in Australia, refined its trajectory and confirmed the extremely close pass.

Because of its small size, 2025 TF poses no threat to Earth. Objects of this magnitude frequently enter Earth’s vicinity and either burn up in the atmosphere or produce bright fireballs. Were it to cross into denser atmospheric layers, it might fragment and leave minimal meteorite residue—yet none of that occurred in this case.

Nonetheless, the event underscores several critical challenges and lessons:

• Detection lag: The fact that the object was identified only after it passed demonstrates the difficulty in pre-detecting metre-scale objects on Earth-grazing trajectories.
• Orbital proximity to satellites: With a flyby altitude comparable to satellite orbits (e.g. ISS ~370–460 km), even small asteroids could pose risk to space assets if orbital paths intersect.
• Precision in orbital determination: Thanks to rapid follow-up telescopic observations, astronomers contained uncertainties and mapped the trajectory with high confidence.
• Need for improved monitoring: This near-miss highlights gaps in early detection and reinforces the importance of global surveillance networks and space-based observatories for planetary defense.

Looking forward, the Minor Planet Center and associated agencies project that 2025 TF will not return on a comparably close approach until its next orbital cycles (JPL lists its orbital period at ~751 days). Meanwhile, astronomers will pore over data from this event to refine detection thresholds, response protocols, and risk assessment models for future near-Earth flybys.

While 2025 TF’s passage was a narrow miss, it serves as a vivid reminder: in the vastness of space, even tiny rocks can brush past at heights where satellites wander. Continuous vigilance and sharper tools remain essential to protect our space infrastructure and, by extension, life on Earth.